Finally, the fifth day of World Cup 2014 brings the first match of Group G, the vaunted “Group of Death.” Together in this pot are Germany, the three-time World Cup champions and second-ranked team in the world; Portugal, the fourth-ranked team in the world and home of the world’s best player; Ghana, who were cheated out of the semifinals four years ago; and the USA, ranked 13th in the world and on a run of qualifying for seven straight World Cups. Germany vs. Portugal is certainly the biggest blockbuster match in a group full of them.
What’s At Stake
Unlike Group E, from which qualification as runner up will be punished with death by Messi, Group G doesn’t put any real premium on finishing first, since whoever qualifies is likely to face one of the evenly-matched Group H favorites, Russia and Belgium. So, since Portugal and Germany are more concerned with progressing than winning the group, both might be happy to take a point from this, the toughest group-stage match either will face. That could mean we’ll see a conservative match.
As always, though, I hope not. The Brazilian air has given fresh life to this World Cup, with the opening-round goals-per-game average increasing more than twofold over 2010. And Cristiano Ronaldo, the electrifying Portuguese captain, can change games with his counterattacking style. If this stronger, possession-happy German side keeps Portugal pinned back, Cristiano will use his speed to punish any instance of Teutonic overcommitment; a Portuguese lead taken on the counterattack would then force Germany to keep leaving the back door open.
Germany are perhaps the world’s leading exponents of the 4-2-3-1, in large part because they are blessed with the best pure playmaker in the game today. Mesut Özil (who is also an Oscar-winning animated movie star) usually plays at the center of the “3” in the 4-2-3-1, where he has freedom to create from the base of a talented attacking four.
My favorite German player is Bayern Munich’s Philipp Lahm, a both-sided fullback who has played in the center of midfield this season and dominated games with his vision and ball retention. He’ll be deployed dead center today between Sami Khedira and Toni Kroos as Germany set out, surprisingly, in a 4-3-3. Look for Kroos to move forward often to allow Özil to resume his central position in the 4-2-3-1 shape.
Unless they score early, Portugal will often find themselves defending in two banks of four, with Hugo Almeida up top and Cristiano variously waiting for clearances to the wings/frustratedly running back to make tackles his teammates can’t. The Portuguese don’t really have the quality to hold the ball against the Germans, so most of their attacking will be done in quick, unpredictable thrusts.
Jon Champion and defender-of-all-that-is-manly Stewart Robson are in the booth. I hate to sound like a broken record, but Robson will, praising dirty play and spurning unmanly displays of actual skill. Admittedly, Cristiano has occasionally made himself an easy target for the anti-diving crowd.
Match-specific Drinking Games
Splash: Have a sip whenever one of the commentators accuses Cristiano Ronaldo of diving. How drunk? Sip something weak.
Enforcers: Take a shot every time a Portuguese centerback (Bruno Alves or Pepe) injures an opponent. How drunk? Wooooozy.
Six-pack: Shotgun a beer every time Cristiano takes his shirt off. How drunk? However drunk exactly three beers gets you.
Germany: Lager. Oh, yes. No excuses today, for those of you who couldn’t find a good aguardiente in time for the Colombia game.
Portugal: Porto. Ah, Portugal. Play fast, drink slow. Beautiful girls. Crushing youth unemployment.
For more:
– Read my general World Cup watching guide.
– Check out Zonal Marking, my favorite tactics website.
– See a commentary schedule or a review of each commentator.
– See where I’m getting my national drink recommendations.
– Check out other match previews from this group: Ghana vs. USA
Picture credit: moresay.com, instinctmagazine.com
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